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The 2019 Oscar Winner Predictions!

Writer: Casey Lee



Who do you think will win at the Oscars?

It might be a sleepy contest but the Academy has been abuzz with non-awards related happenings from a host-less Oscar to a shorter televised broadcast. The Oscars is once again being the controversial and prestigious awards show that it is. While all these changes could be marking a heavy shift within the Academy, as the Board is trying out new things (and facing vehement resistance from its members), which could be a factor in who are the voters and who they will vote for to win a golden statuette.

Although there were a few early buzz for some of these contending titles, the best of 2018 are still neck-to-neck as we reach the finish line, and there are still plenty of categories that could have a few surprises installed for us on awards night. So with further ado, here are our predictions of the winners for the 91st Academy Awards.

Best Production Design

The Nominees:
1. Black Panther
2. First Man
3. The Favourite
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Roma

The contenders for this category are some of the most lavish sets we've seen in 2018. This will be one of the technical categories for the titles running for Best Picture would be looking to score, but if the winds are read correctly, this one will belong to "The Favourite", who secured the same win at the BAFTA and the Art Directors Guild Awards.

The Winner: "The Favourite"

Best Costume

The Nominees:
1. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
2. Black Panther
3. The Favourite
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Mary Queen of Scots

While the competition for costumes is usually the battleground for the elaborate period pieces as seen in this list of nominees that lines up some of the best in the business, last year's "Black Panther" may be looking to switch up the game to win the first best costume award for a superhero movie. While the Costume Designers Guild has not shown their verdict at the time of writing, hopes are on Ruth E. Carter to make Oscar history for Marvel Studios with her third Oscar nomination.

The Winner: "Black Panther"

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Nominees:
1. Border
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Vice

One of the four categories that was bound to be cut from the televised broadcast is a close call with the small number of competitors. The Makeup Artists and Hair Stylist Guild has given awards to "Mary Queen of Scots" and "Vice", but we believe that the cosmetic transformation of Christian Bale into the evil vice-president would gain the upper hand when there can only be one winner on Academy night.

The Winner: "Vice"

Best Sound Mixing

The Nominees:
1. Black Panther
2. Bohemian Rhapsody
3. First Man
4. A Star is Born
5. Roma

One of the technical categories that is hotly contested by the Best Picture nominees, except for "First Man". But this one seems to be given by the Cinema Audio Society to "Bohemian Rhapsody", which may be crucial for its chances to win Best Picture, or just a consolation that "Bohemian Rhapsody" will go home with a few awards.

The Winner: "Bohemian Rhapsody"

Best Visual Effects

The Nominees:
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Christopher Robin
3. First Man
4. Ready Player One
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Another year where the best visual effects have nothing to do with who will win the Best Picture, but this is a rather important competition for Marvel Studios. Despite having numerous contenders in this category over the years, this is the closest shot they have especially with their win at the Visual Effects Society Awards, even if "Avengers: Infinity War" had to cannibalize "Ant-Man and the Wasp" and Best Picture contender "Black Panther". The main obstacle that remains is "First Man" which the Visual Effects Society also gave a win at their awards ceremony.

The Winner: "Avengers: Infinity War"

Best Original Score

The Nominees:
1. Ludwig Garansson (Black Panther)
2. Terence Blanchard (BlacKkKlansman)
3. Nicholas Britell (If Beale Street Could Talk)
4. Alxandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs)
5. Marc Shaiman (Mary Poppins Returns)

One of the toughest category to predict without an indicator award beforehand and made even tougher due to the variety in genre and style. Last year's winner Alexandre Desplat may have something going for this year for the Japanese and calm music he has to do for Wes Anderson's stop motion animation, but the favourites of this year seem to be those circled around Black-culture music. But between the sci-fi and tribal-inspired sounds from "Black Panther" and the nostalgic remix of Black music during the 70s, who will be representative? In terms of technical ingenuity, we would say it will be "BlacKkKlansman", which will be another feather in the cap for Spike Lee's Oscar race.

The Winner: Terence Blanchard (BlacKkKlansman)

Best Original Song

The Nominees:
1. All the Stars (Black Panther)
2. I'll Fight (RBG)
3. The Place Where Lost Things Go (Mary Poppins Returns)
4. Shallow (A Star is Born)
5. When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

Some of 2018's best songs might come from the most unexpected places, but this is clearly where the music-oriented movies shine. We expect nothing from the heartfelt ballad from "A Star is Born", and it's probably the only prize that it would be able to take away that night.

The Winner: Shallows (A Star is Born)

Best Film Editing

The Nominees:
1. BlacKkKlansman
2. Bohemia Rhapsody
3. The Favourite
4. Green Book
5. Vice

The technical award for the Best Picture contender to win and it is not making predicting this category easier since the indicator awards have gone to three on this list. "Vice" pulled a surprising upset at the BAFTA, with "Bohemian Rhapsody" and "The Favourite" scored respective wins from the American Cinema Editors awards. The dark horse here is Barry Alexander Brown for "BlacKkKlansman", but he will have to inch over Yorgos Mavropsaridis's cut in "The Favourite" to secure the win.

The Winner: "The Favourite"

Best Foreign Film

The Nominees:
1. Capernaum (Lebanon)
2. Cold War (Poland)
3. Never Look Away (German)
4. Roma (Mexico)
5. Shoplifters (Japan)

In a historic year for this category with one of the contenders here also in the running for Best Picture, odds are looking very favourably for Alfonso Cuaron's "Roma", but a win here could also be indicative that is the closest "Roma" would get to the Best Picture. "Roma"'s win isn't even a sure thing yet, despite winning the same category in the BAFTA and Golden Globes. There are still talks that if "Roma" was destined for Best Picture then this would go to "Cold War", and the possibility of a Palm d'Or winner like "Shoplifters" winning the Best Foreign Oscar would not surprise anyone.

The Winner: "Roma"

Best Documentary

The Nominees:
1. Free Solo
2. Hale County This Morning This Evening
3. Minding the Gap
4. Of Fathers and Sons
5. RBG

Despite another year of political and social documentaries, this year's winner doesn't seem to be one that is about either. For its death-defying approach to capture free climbers, "Free Solo" has been collecting awards in competitions that have a documentary category, including the BAFTA.

The Winner: "Free Solo"

Best Cinematography

The Nominees:
1. Lukasz Zal (Cold War)
2. Robbie Ryan (The Favourite)
3. Caleb Deschanel (Never Look Away)
4. Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
5. Matthew Libatique (A Star is Born)

It is ever so rare to have this category almost a repeat of the Best Foreign category which really goes to showcase where the best cinematographers are working last year. Much like how the competition will go down for the Best Foreign Oscar, this is a close fight between the two black-and-white films, both of which have won indicator awards with "Roma" taking the BAFTA and "Cold War" taking the American Society of Cinematographers.

The Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, "Roma"

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees:
1. The Favourite
2. First Reformed
3. Green Book
4. Roma
5. Vice

This was certainly a category that had a hard time finding contenders when it had to give "First Reformed" one of its slot over the other Best Picture contenders. But it's clear that the competition boils down to "The Favourite" against "Green Book", both of which would be heavily relying on a win here for their Best Picture chances. But in comparing the true-story against the fictional scheming of the two ladies, the edge seems to go to the BAFTA winner over "Green Book" which did win penning award in the Golden Globes. With none of them able to gain the approval of the Writers Guild Awards, this could be anyone's race.

The Winner: "The Favourite"

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees:
1. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. A Star is Born

Since its win at the BAFTA, the competition for this category seems set to go to "BlacKkKlansman", but with the recent win for Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty at the WGA for "Can You Ever Forgive Me?", it has put a little doubt in "BlacKklansman"'s certainty, as unreliable as the WGA's predictions are to the Oscars.

The Winner: "BlacKkklansman"

Best Animated Feature

The Nominees:
1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Mirai
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
5. Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse

It's another year where the great animation titans are at it again, with even a few new kids on the block coming from Japan. Although "Mira" holds the honour of being the first non-Ghibli animation to reach this far in the Oscar race (that fans of "Your Name" would have liked to claim), it faces tremendous competition from Pixar's "The Incredibles 2" and Disney's "Ralph Breaks the Internet". But the winner is unanimous. Sony will be joining the greats in this category from now on as "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" is looking to repeat its win from the BAFTA, the Golden Globes, the PGA, the Annie, and all the technical awards with an animation category.

The Winner: "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees:
1. Amy Adams (Vice)
2. Marina de Tavira (Roma)
3. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
4. Emma Stone (The Favourite)
5. Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

One of the least talked about categories this year but three of the nominees have something to lost if they do not win. Rachel Weisz seems to be the better choice for her win at the BAFTA than Regina King's win at the Golden Globes. However, with none of the ladies here able to secure anything at SAG, those who did not win an award have just as much chance to pull something on Oscar night than those who did.

The Winner: Rachel Weisz from "The Favourite"

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees:
1. Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
2. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
3. Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
4. Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
5. Sam Rockwell (Vice)

More certain than its female counterpart, this is one category that has as little to talk about because it looks set for Mahershala Ali to repeat his Oscar win in another Barry Jenkins role. Winning over the BAFTA, Golden Globes and the all-important SAG, any win from the others would be an upset.

The Winner: Mahershala Ali from "Green Book"

Best Actress

The Nominee:
1. Yalitza Aparioc (Roma)
2. Glenn Close (The Wife)
3. Oliva Coleman (The Favourite)
4. Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
5. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Another category that returns to be a battle of the veterans. Olivia Coleman and Glenn Close won the award for their respective categories at the Golden Globes. Although Colman won the award at "The Favourite"-favoured BAFTA, Close earned the accolade from her peers at the SAG, which could make all the difference.

The Winner: Glenn Close from "The Wife"

Best Actor

The Nominees:
1. Christian Bale (Vice)
2. Willem Dafoe Lewis (At Eternity's Gate)
3. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
4. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
5. Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Although Christian Bale's famous transformation takes centre stage once in "Vice", the one who showed the greatest transformation last year was Rami Malek who became Freddie Mercury. Malek's transformation has already earned him wins at BAFTA, the Golden Globes (where Bale also won), and the SAG, indicating that the actor's branch is not looking to change their minds for the Oscars.

The Winner: Rami Malek from "Bohemian Rhapsody"

Best Director

The Nominees:
1. Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
2. Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
4. Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
5. Adam McKay (Vice)

In one of the all-important category that would have a strong influence on the Best Picture race, just how much influence it would have on this year's race remains to be seen. The last time Alfonso Cuaron won this award, his "Gravity" did not win the Best Picture. This seems to be the same scenario Cuaron is finding himself in again. With his win for the award secured by his BAFTA, Golden Globes and the branch's award from the Director Guild of America, would also spell the end of "Roma" to take Best Picture?

The Winner: Alfonso Cuaron

Best Picture

The Nominees:
1. Black Panther
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. The Favourite
5. Green Book
6. Roma
7. A Star is Born
8. Vice

With frontrunners like "Roma" and "The Favourite" competing against each other, it doesn't mean that the victor would inevitably be one of the two. Being the only Oscar category that uses preferential voting, Golden Globe winners like "Bohemian Rhapsody" and "Green Book", or crowd-pleasers like "Black Panther" and "A Star is Born" cannot be written off completely. We think this year's Best Picture is not a race for which is the best, but second best, as the common denominator that could pull an upset on the frontrunners if the votes are divided. Added by the fact that "Green Book" got a surprising win at the Producers Guild of America, which is one of the strongest indicator (and also uses a similar preferential voting method) as to where the voters' minds are at. We are putting our money for "Green Book" on that count, but this would not be a simple winners-take-all like last year's Oscars, and we are quietly rooting for any one of the titles that we have mentioned here.

The Winner: "Green Book"

Cinema Online, 24 February 2019


Related Movies:
Bohemian Rhapsody (01 Nov 2018)
A Star Is Born (04 Oct 2018)
Black Panther (14 Feb 2018)
Avengers: Infinity War (25 Apr 2018)
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (13 Dec 2018)
Mary Poppins Returns (27 Dec 2018)

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